Who wins and who loses in Congress? The strategic calculus of parties and moderates

Jonathan Wand and Zac Peskowitz

In this paper, we identify and seek to resolve a puzzle about who wins and who loses in votes in Congress. Using roll-call voting data from the House, we show that during the era of the Democratic majority, and spanning at least from 1968 through 1994, moderate and conservative Democrats were more likely to be rolled on final passage roll call votes than similarly placed Republicans. After the Republicans took the majority following 1994, this partisan gap disappeared.